Wagner Mutiny's Impact: Loss of Russian Aircraft Damages Morale, Operations

Created: JANUARY 25, 2025

The Wagner Group's recent mutiny significantly impacted Russia's military, dealing a psychological blow to its airborne command and control capabilities. During their advance towards Moscow, Wagner forces shot down a crucial Russian IL-22M airborne command post aircraft, resulting in the loss of the crew and the destruction of one of Russia's limited number of specialized aircraft. This loss has serious implications for Russian air and land operations, as the IL-22M played a vital role in coordinating forces. The incident is expected to negatively affect morale within the Russian Aerospace Force.

Debris of downed Russian IL-22M aircraft

Open-source intelligence suggests Wagner forces also destroyed several Russian helicopters within Russian territory, including Mi-35 and Ka-52 attack helicopters, Mi-8 electronic warfare helicopters, and an Mi-8 transport helicopter. While the exact number of crew members lost in the IL-22M downing remains unconfirmed, reports indicate a significant number of pilots perished. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin expressed regret for the attack on Russian aircraft but claimed it was necessary due to their involvement in bombing and missile strikes. The U.K. Ministry of Defence emphasized the strategic significance of the IL-22M loss, highlighting the aircraft's critical role in command and control and radio relay tasks. This small fleet of aircraft, operating within Russian airspace beyond the reach of Ukrainian air defenses, is heavily relied upon for coordinating forces in the war against Ukraine. Russia may now be forced to reduce mission levels to protect the remaining aircraft, potentially hindering their ability to command and coordinate forces, particularly during intense operations.

Wagner fighters leaving Rostov-on-Don

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the loss of Russian pilots during the mutiny, praising their commitment to duty but without confirming the number of casualties.

Debris of downed Russian IL-22M aircraft

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