Assad's Downfall: A Turning Point in Syria's Conflict – Examining Biden's Role and the Implications for the Middle East

Created: JANUARY 25, 2025

The swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has sparked a wave of debate surrounding the Biden administration's foreign policy in the region. While President Biden has attributed the shift in power dynamics to the U.S.'s unwavering support of Israel and Ukraine, critics argue that his administration's cautious approach played a limited role in Assad's downfall.

Questions arise regarding the administration's understanding of the Syrian situation, given the presence of American troops and contractors in the northeast. President Biden, speaking from the White House, linked the change in the Middle East to the actions of Ukraine and Israel with U.S. backing. However, some analysts, like John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, believe that attributing the weakening of Iran and Hezbollah to the Biden administration is inaccurate. Hannah argues that Israel's resilience, despite pressure from the Biden administration to restrain its actions against these groups, is the key factor.

TOPSHOT - A picture taken at the entrance of the Kweyris military airfield in the eastern part of Aleppo province on December 3, 2024 shows a portrait of  Syria's President Bashar al-Assad and a national flag in the garbage dumpster following the take over of the area by rebel groups. A war monitor on December 1 said Ankara-backed groups seized control of the towns of Safireh and Khanasser southeast of Aleppo from government forces, and also took the Kweyris military airport.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly linked the collapse of the Syrian regime to the blows inflicted upon Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. He acknowledged ongoing challenges but emphasized Israel's preparedness. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude for the Trump administration's recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

President Biden delivers remarks on the latest developments in Syria at the White House on Dec. 8, 2024. (Pete Marovich/Getty Images) Netanyahu and Biden

Reports indicate that the Biden administration sought to limit Israel's response to the Hamas attacks in 2023, urging restraint against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran. A senior administration official, however, maintains that U.S. policy significantly altered the Middle Eastern landscape, contributing to the recent events in Syria. Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, counters this view, suggesting that the administration's risk-averse approach played a minor role, with Israel taking the lead in confronting the Iranian-backed threat network.

Rebels in northwest Syria seized military vehicles belonging to the regime along the route toward Kweris Airport on Dec. 2, 2024. Syrian President Bashar Assad, left, and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Past engagement with Assad by Democratic figures like John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi has also come under scrutiny. Experts point to the Biden and Obama administrations' history of misjudging Middle Eastern dictators and radical Islamist movements, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the subsequent Taliban takeover. Senator Lindsey Graham highlights the ongoing threat of ISIS prisoners held by Kurdish forces, emphasizing the potential for a resurgence and the importance of maintaining a U.S. presence in Syria.

Plane in Afghanistan Displaced Kurds leave a refugee camp in the north of Aleppo, Syria, Dec. 4, 2024. Islamic State militant holds ISIS flag in a desert setting

Sinam Sherkany Mohamad, representing the Syrian Democratic Council, emphasizes the Syrian people's desire for a democratic system and warns of the persistent ISIS threat. Incoming Rep. Abraham Hamadeh stresses the importance of including Syrian Kurds in any peace process. Max Abrahms, a counterterrorism expert, notes the potential for ISIS to re-emerge in the new Syria, suggesting a continued need for U.S. forces to collaborate with the Syrian Democratic Forces.

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