The cost of gasoline is often a key factor influencing voter sentiment, and the 2024 election is expected to be no different. As Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at The PRICE Futures Group, notes, "Voters feel the impact of rising gasoline prices acutely." This sensitivity to fuel costs makes politicians keenly aware of their potential impact on election outcomes.

A look back at recent presidential terms reveals a strong correlation between gas prices and electoral success. During George W. Bush's first term, with gas averaging $1.59 per gallon, Republicans saw gains in Congress. However, higher and more volatile prices during his second term, peaking at $4.17 in July 2008 before falling to $2.46 by Election Day, coincided with Democratic victories and the election of Barack Obama.

The Obama presidency saw average gas prices at $3.12 per gallon during his first term. The 2010 midterm elections, with rising gas prices, saw significant Republican gains in the House. While 2012 marked the highest average gas price of Obama's tenure, a pre-election drop of nearly 40 cents coincided with his re-election and Democratic gains in Congress.

Donald Trump's presidency witnessed the lowest average gas prices since George W. Bush's first term, averaging $2.57 per gallon. Conversely, the average price under Joe Biden has been over a dollar higher, at $3.60. Biden's release of oil from the strategic reserve before the 2022 midterms, lowering prices from over $5.00 in June to around $3.80 in November, drew criticism and sparked debate about the intended purpose of the reserve.

While the Biden administration attributed high gas prices to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and pandemic recovery, some energy experts viewed the release as a political maneuver. Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council, argued that the strategic reserve is intended for short-term supply disruptions, not "long-term market manipulation." Analysts also point to seasonal driving patterns as a contributing factor to the November price drop.

As the 2024 election cycle intensifies, gas prices are likely to remain a central issue, with politicians attributing fluctuations to opposing policies. Regardless of the underlying causes, public perception of gas prices holds significant sway over voter decisions.